West Bengal political shifts poised to reshape India-Bangladesh relations

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The evolving political and social landscape of West Bengal is poised to become a decisive factor in the future trajectory of Bangladesh-India relations, extending beyond the traditional bilateral decision-making spheres of New Delhi and Dhaka. This assertion was made by Pallavi Roy, a professor of political economy at the SOAS University of London’s Centre for International Studies and Diplomacy, during her keynote address at the Bengal Delta Conference 2026, organized by the Dhaka Institute of Research and Analytics (DIRA).

According to Roy, West Bengal can no longer be viewed solely through the lens of Indian domestic politics. For decades, the state has functioned as an informal diplomatic “buffer,” facilitating cultural and political communication between the two nations and often acting as a mediator during periods of regional tension. The weakening of this intermediary role could introduce significant volatility, particularly regarding long-standing issues such as Teesta River water-sharing, border security management, and broader bilateral cooperation.

The professor noted that the political paradigm in Bangladesh underwent a fundamental shift in 2024. Consequently, if New Delhi attempts to reconstruct ties through a focus on infrastructure and development projects, it faces the challenge of navigating a shifting public sentiment. Residual perceptions regarding the close alignment between India and the previous Awami League government continue to influence current political discourse, complicating the reception of new initiatives.

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Addressing the complexities of the Teesta River negotiations, Roy cautioned against attributing the stalemate exclusively to West Bengal’s internal politics. She emphasized that the river’s flow is heavily influenced by hydroelectric projects in Sikkim, making the dispute a tripartite issue involving New Delhi, the state government, and Sikkim. A resolution, therefore, requires a broader diplomatic framework that transcends state-level political shifts.

In her concluding remarks, Roy identified identity politics as the most pressing challenge for both regions. She argued that the core issue lies in moving beyond religious divisions to establish a cohesive “Bengali” identity that is socially and politically resonant. While this presents as a question of sub-national identity for West Bengal, it remains deeply tied to national sovereignty for Bangladesh. The long-term stability of the relationship between the two nations may ultimately depend on whether this regional identity can be harmonized with national interests rather than positioned in competition with them.